China’s memory capacity surges against the trend: NVIDIA H20 inventory digestion and new product competition is concerned
All - round Efforts in China's Memory Field: Both Capacity Doubling and Technological Breakthroughs
In the DRAM field, Chinese manufacturers have shown a strong growth momentum. Research reports indicate that in the third quarter of this year, China’s DRAM production capacity (based on wafer input) reached 720,000 pieces, an increase of about 70% compared with the same period last year (420,000 pieces). On an annual basis, the output of DRAM wafers is expected to increase from 1.62 million pieces last year to 2.73 million pieces this year, showing a significant growth. The industry predicts that the shipment volume of a leading manufacturer is expected to be close to that of Micron next year, which may change the existing pattern of the top three DRAM players in the world.
The NAND flash memory market also has many bright spots. Although major companies such as Samsung have reduced production due to falling prices, the output of the Wuhan factory of a Chinese manufacturer has increased sharply since the first quarter of last year. In the second quarter, the NAND output was 130,000 pieces, more than twice the 60,000 pieces in the same period last year, and the overall output increased by 42% year – on – year.
Chinese manufacturers are not only expanding traditional memory products but also developing advanced product lines. In the HBM market, the progress of this manufacturer is faster than expected. It plans to complete the mass production certification process of the fourth – generation HBM3 by the end of this year and will introduce HBM packaging facilities in the future.
Industry insiders revealed that the manufacturer is actively expanding its factories in Beijing and Hefei, will invest in HBM packaging facilities in the future, and has an internal goal of mass – producing the fifth – generation HBM3E within two years. It also focuses on advanced technologies by increasing the number of layers in 3D NAND flash memory.
SK Hynix has the largest number of mass – produced NAND layers with 321 layers, followed by Samsung Electronics with 286 layers. A Chinese manufacturer has 270 layers and has made significant progress in NAND performance indicators such as chip size and capacity per square millimeter.
H20 Finished Product Inventory Reaches 700,000 Units
The United States has lifted the ban on the sale of NVIDIA H20, and the market expects shipments of 400,000 units in the second half of the year.
Industry insiders point out that the current total inventory of H20 chips in the semiconductor supply chain is about 1 million units, of which the finished product inventory is approximately 700,000 units.
Since leading semiconductor wafer manufacturers have completed their wafer starts, it is unclear whether new H20 chip orders will be added in the future. Therefore, the current stage will focus on digesting inventory.
China began mass – producing its self – developed server CloudMatrix 384 this year, which uses 384 Huawei – designed Ascend 910C chips. The market once worried that this would affect the demand for H20 chips.
In terms of performance comparison, the performance of the H20 chip is about three times that of the 910C. It is expected that Chinese CSP manufacturers will remain willing to purchase H20.
The supply chain confirmed that NVIDIA will ship the new generation B30 chip in the fourth quarter. The specifications are similar to H20, with performance about 10% – 20% lower and price 30% – 40% lower, which will help further enhance its competitive advantag