2025 Memory Chip Market Undergoes Multiple Transformations_ Price Surge and Domestic Technological Breakthroughs Reshape the La
The global memory chip market is witnessing a dramatic transformation in 2025. On one hand, prices of mainstream memory products such as DRAM and GDDR6 have surged significantly, leading to a sharp increase in profits and tax payments for leading enterprises. On the other hand, domestic memory chip manufacturers have achieved key technological breakthroughs, while Micron Technology has clarified its HBM4 mass production plan. The industry is experiencing a dual-track development trend of “price surge + technological breakthroughs” and is poised to enter a new phase of structural growth in the future.
Driven by the expansion of AI infrastructure, the DRAM market has entered a super cycle, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix emerging as major beneficiaries. The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM for both companies in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations. Specifically, Samsung’s ASP rose by nearly 20% quarter-on-quarter, while SK Hynix’s increased by approximately 10%. Orders for high-value-added products such as server DRAM and HBM have skyrocketed, and there is also a supply-demand shortage for general-purpose DRAM used in consumer PCs and smartphones. Consequently, the memory contract model has shifted from monthly/quarterly agreements to long-term contracts extending to mid-2027 or even beyond, with major tech firms accepting price increases of over 50% to secure supply.
The price surge has also spread to the graphics card memory sector. The unit price of GDDR6 chips per GB has risen from 2.5 to 7.5, representing a 200% increase. For graphics cards with 16GB of memory, the chip cost has increased by approximately 560 yuan (RMB), while the cost of high-end 32GB models may exceed 1,000 yuan (RMB). In response, NVIDIA and AMD are even considering cutting back on their mid-to-low-end graphics card product lines.
The industry’s profit growth is also reflected in tax contributions. In 2025, the total corporate tax paid by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reached 6.2 trillion won, an approximately 9-fold increase compared to the previous year. Among them, SK Hynix’s tax payment surged by 46.1 times year-on-year, while Samsung’s rose by 3.1 times. This growth is primarily driven by increased sales of AI-related high-value-added memory products.
Domestic memory chip manufacturers have achieved milestone breakthroughs. At the 2025 China International Semiconductor Expo, Changxin Memory Technology (CXMT) launched its first domestically developed DDR5 product, featuring a maximum speed of 8000Mbps and a chip capacity of 24Gb, covering full scenarios including servers and PCs. Additionally, the company showcased its LPDDR5X product, which is compatible with flagship mobile devices and offers a maximum speed of 10667Mbps, enriching the global memory supply.
Furthermore, Micron Technology has explicitly denied rumors of “HBM4 redesign leading to delayed shipments” and announced that it will start shipping HBM4 from the second quarter of 2026. Notably, the production capacity for HBM3E and HBM4 in the coming year has already been fully booked. In response to doubts about the competitiveness of its substrates, Micron stated that HBM4 will continue to use mature processes, and improved yield rates will optimize costs. The company also plans to jointly develop substrates with TSMC starting from HBM4E to further consolidate its technological advantages.
Future Trend Forecast
In terms of market size, the AI-driven “super cycle” will continue to deepen. It is expected that the scale of China’s memory chip market will exceed 50 billion in 2026 and is likely to reach over 80 billion by 2030, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12%. Among various segments, the demand for high-bandwidth DRAM and enterprise-grade SSDs in AI servers is the strongest. The global enterprise-grade SSD market is projected to grow from 23.4 billion in 2024 to 49 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of 16%.
Technological evolution will see breakthroughs in multiple paths, with continuous upgrades in mainstream memory technologies:
- The number of 3D NAND stacking layers will move beyond 512, and companies such as Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) are expected to exceed the 400-layer mark by 2030.
- DRAM processes will advance to the 1β and 1γ nanometer nodes, while HBM4 bandwidth will be further enhanced. Moreover, memory pooling technology based on the CXL protocol will enable terabyte-level dynamic expansion of server memory.
- Meanwhile, emerging memory technologies such as MRAM and ReRAM are gradually demonstrating industrialization potential in edge computing and intelligent driving scenarios. Enterprises like InnoGrit have planned to launch high-end SSD products with 25-50M IOPS by 2027, with the goal of achieving 100M IOPS by 2030.
The process of domestic substitution will accelerate. Currently, China’s import dependence on DRAM and NAND Flash remains as high as 90% and 85% respectively. However, with policy support, it is expected that the localization rate will rise to 30% and 40% by 2030. The combined production capacity share of Changxin Memory and Yangtze Memory is projected to increase from 6.8% in 2024 to over 18% by 2030, while the market share of domestic PCIe 5.0 interface SSDs may reach 25% by 2026. Nevertheless, risks such as international trade frictions and technological iteration need to be vigilantly monitored, and the pace of breakthroughs in upstream “chokepoint” areas such as photoresists and etching equipment will be a crucial determinant.
Overall, the global memory chip market is experiencing both volume and price growth driven by AI demand. Leading enterprises are reaping dual benefits from profit growth and technological layout, while breakthroughs and ecosystem building in domestic memory chips are injecting new and evolving variables into the competitive landscape of the industry.